@InProceedings{BurtonKeJoBeCaAn:2021:SoAmFi,
               author = "Burton, Chantelle and Kelley, Douglas and Jones, Chris and Betts, 
                         Richard and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira and Anderson, Liana",
          affiliation = "{Met Office} and {UK Centre for Ecology \& Hydrology} and {Met 
                         Office} and {Met Office} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas 
                         de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
                title = "South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with 
                         continued emissions",
                 year = "2021",
         organization = "EGU General Assembly",
            publisher = "EGU",
             abstract = "Unprecedented fire events in recent years are leading to a demand 
                         for improved understanding of how climate change is already 
                         affecting fires, and how this could change in the future. 
                         Increased fire activity in South America is one of the most 
                         concerning of all the recent events, given the potential impacts 
                         on local health and the global climate from loss of large carbon 
                         stores under future environmental change. However, due to the 
                         complexity of interactions and feedbacks, and lack of complete 
                         representation of fire biogeochemistry in many climate models, 
                         there is currently low agreement on whether climate change will 
                         cause fires to become more or less frequent in the future, and 
                         what impact this will have on ecosystems. Here we use the latest 
                         climate simulations from the UK Earth System Model UKESM1 to 
                         understand feedbacks in fire, dynamic vegetation, and terrestrial 
                         carbon stores using the fire-enabled land surface model 
                         JULES-INFERNO, taking into account future scenarios of change in 
                         emissions and land use. Based on evaluation of the modelling 
                         framework performance for the present day, we address the specific 
                         policy-relevant question: how much fire-induced carbon loss will 
                         there be over South America at different global warming levels in 
                         the future? We find that burned area and fire emissions are 
                         projected to increase in the future due to hotter and drier 
                         conditions, which leads to large reductions in carbon storage 
                         especially when combined with increasing land-use conversion. The 
                         model simulates a 38% loss of carbon at 4°C under the highest 
                         emission scenario, which could be reduced to 8% if temperature 
                         rise is limited to 1.5°C. Our results provide a critical 
                         assessment of ecosystem resilience under future climate change, 
                         and could inform the way fire and land-use is managed in the 
                         future to reduce the most deleterious impacts of climate change.",
  conference-location = "Online",
      conference-year = "19-30 apr.",
                  doi = "10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6347",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6347",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "EGU21-6347-print.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}